The Nuclear Road Ahead: Challenges for President Donald J Trump

December 05, 2016 

James Doyle, Jesse Guillen, Cheryl Rofer and Arvid Lundy

We’ve heard more than usual about nuclear weapons, both in the campaign and from Russia. The UN has decided to consider a ban on nuclear weapons, like the bans on chemical and biological weapons. Who’s got nuclear weapons and where? We’ll look at the issues and where things may go. Our panelists welcome your questions.

Dr. James Doyle – Nuclear Nonproliferation Specialist:
From 1997 to July 2014 Dr. Doyle was a specialist in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Division at Los Alamos National Laboratory. His professional focus is on systems analysis, strategic planning and policy development. Dr. Doyle holds a PhD in International Security Studies from the University of Virginia. At Los Alamos he managed projects with Russia’s nuclear weapons institutes on the joint development of technologies and procedures for verifying the dismantlement and storage of nuclear warheads and fissile materials. In 2015 Dr. Doyle was awarded the first Paul Olum fellowship from the Ploughshares Fund and was a non-resident fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Security at Harvard. His recent works focus on nuclear forces modernization, innovation in the field of nuclear threats and strategic planning for the elimination of nuclear weapons.

Cheryl Rofer – Former President of the Los Alamos Committee on Arms Control and International Security:
Cheryl Rofer retired more than a decade ago, after 35 years as a chemist at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Her work included environmental projects in Estonia and Kazakhstan, managing cleanups at Los Alamos, and projects in fossil fuels, laser development, and the nuclear fuel cycle. She now blogs at Nuclear Diner and contributes posts and op-eds to other web newspapers and magazines, including the Globe and Mail, War On The Rocks, and Physics Today. She was a member of the Board of Trustees of Ripon College (Ripon, Wisconsin), past president of the Los Alamos Committee on Arms Control and International Security, and a founding member of SFWAF. She has published in scientific and political science journals and edited a book. She holds an A.B. from Ripon College and an M.S. from the University of California at Berkeley. She has been following the progress of the negotiations with Iran closely and has tweeted extensive commentary (@CherylRofer).

Jesse Guillen – Founder of Global Zero – Santa Fe Chapter:
As the Global Zero representative in northern New Mexico, Jesse has lobbied at the UN and on Capitol Hill in support of the Iran Deal and for reductions in nuclear weapons spending. He earned a Masters degree in International Relations from the University of Kent – Brussels School of International Studies, and spent six months in Beijing, China at the China Foreign Affairs University. His Bachelors degree is in Political Science and he has worked for Senator Jeff Bingaman and Governor Bill Richardson. Jesse is currently the Legislative Liaison for the city of Santa Fe where he is responsible for drafting legislation for the Mayor and City Councillors.

Arvid Lundy – Moderator, Nuclear Export Controls Specialist, and SFWAF Vice President:
Arvid has extensive experience in nuclear export controls, nuclear proliferation intelligence, electronic instrumentation design, and clinical medical physics. Arvid spent thirty one years at Los Alamos National Laboratory as project engineer, group leader, and program manager. His career included over 100 foreign trips for the US government on nuclear issues, especially international nuclear export control.

This program will be in the Santa Fe Community College Board Room (room #223).

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The Nuclear Road Ahead: Challenges for President Donald J Trump2019-05-01T14:20:26-07:00

Finland and Russia’s Changing Policies

For more than a year, the Russian Federation has been flying combat and surveillance aircraft – with transponders off – over the Baltic Sea approaching and occasionally entering Finnish and Swedish airspace. Such dangerous and provocative actions have come with no prior warning. In response, these two Nordic countries signed an agreement with NATO to increase cooperation and interoperability – meant to send a warning to the Russians. Finland has an 833 mile border with Russia, the Finns have fought innumerable wars with its much larger neighbor but have also managed to convince the Russians that a Russian military invasion of Finland is simply too costly. The post-World War II policy of Finlandization ended quietly with the demise of the Soviet Union as Finland joined the Council of Europe, the European Union and NATO’s Partners for Peace thereafter.

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Finland and Russia’s Changing Policies2019-05-01T14:20:27-07:00

Still Thinking about the Unthinkable: Maintaining Nuclear Stability through Times of Transition

Any reduction of the nation’s nuclear arsenal will have consequences, both direct and ancillary. Before the U.S. moves too far in shrinking nuclear stockpiles, many circumstances will need to be carefully evaluated. The following developments would deserve particular attention: foreign force modernizations, especially those which might signify a waning of American technological superiority; the re-emergence of confrontational strategies by countries like China and Russia; nuclear proliferation activities not justified by credible civilian applications; and the strengthening of international terror networks directed against the U.S. and its allies.

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Still Thinking about the Unthinkable: Maintaining Nuclear Stability through Times of Transition2019-05-01T14:20:27-07:00

The Fallout from Libya: Al Qaeda in Africa

The power vacuum created by Qadhafi’s fall goes beyond the tragic death of our Ambassador and his colleagues in Benghazi — the same city that the US led coalition saved from rape and pillage.   Religious extremism, terror and crime now thrive within Libya and beyond.   Having destroyed the country of Mali and established a homeland in West Africa from where, violent extremism will spread across the Sahara and North back into Algeria and Libya creating another Afghanistan if we fail to adopt a proactive counter terrorism strategy that will help Africa defeat Al Qaeda.

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The Fallout from Libya: Al Qaeda in Africa2019-05-01T14:20:27-07:00

Bureaucracy Does its Thing: US Performance in Afghanistan

Most Americans are relieved that the international intervention in Afghanistan is winding down more than a decade after 9/11. Can the absence of clear cut victory despite a considerable investment of blood and treasure be attributed to Afghanistan’s reputation as the “graveyard of empires?” Meanwhile, Afghans have suffered 34 years of instability and war. How do they feel about the departure of foreign troops?  Are they prepared to assume their own defense?    Despite differences in scale, are there clear parallels with the experience of the US in Vietnam nearly 50 years ago?  What lessons have we learned from the handling of these these conflicts?  Finally, will  historians judge the Afghan intervention to have been a success or failure? (more…)

Bureaucracy Does its Thing: US Performance in Afghanistan2019-05-01T14:20:28-07:00

Rebuilding Iraq: What worked? What Didn’t? What Next?

Central to the U.S. effort to help Iraq rebuild were the Provincial Reconstruction Teams, civilian-led groups of experts in governance, economic development, urban planning, basic services, agriculture, elections, women’s and family issues, and other specialties, some of which were embedded with US military units.  With the U.S. Government scheduled to withdraw all troops from Iraq by December 2011, the Iraq reconstruction effort has come under intense scrutiny. What was it like to live in rural Iraq trying to create jobs, help widows, rebuild water and sewer systems, and foster reconciliation among tribal enemies? Do the results justify the many millions spent? Can or should the U.S. seek continuing benefit from its investment of money, time and talent? What have we learned about trying to provide development assistance in the midst of conflict? (more…)

Rebuilding Iraq: What worked? What Didn’t? What Next?2019-05-01T14:20:28-07:00
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