War & military strategy | The Santa Fe World Affairs Forum

Finland and Russia’s Changing Policies

March 9, 2015

Jyrki Iivonen, Director for Public Policy at the Finnish Ministry of Defense until he retired in September 2013

For more than a year, the Russian Federation has been flying combat and surveillance aircraft – with transponders off – over the Baltic Sea approaching and occasionally entering Finnish and Swedish airspace. Such dangerous and provocative actions have come with no prior warning. In response, these two Nordic countries signed an agreement with NATO to increase cooperation and interoperability – meant to send a warning to the Russians. Finland has an 833 mile border with Russia, the Finns have fought innumerable wars with its much larger neighbor but have also managed to convince the Russians that a Russian military invasion of Finland is simply too costly. The post-World War II policy of Finlandization ended quietly with the demise of the Soviet Union as Finland joined the Council of Europe, the European Union and NATO’s Partners for Peace thereafter.

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Finland and Russia’s Changing PoliciesPatK2019-05-01T14:20:27-07:00

Still Thinking about the Unthinkable: Maintaining Nuclear Stability through Times of Transition

June 16, 2014

Houston T Hawkins, Senior Fellow, Principal Directorate, Global Security, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Any reduction of the nation’s nuclear arsenal will have consequences, both direct and ancillary. Before the U.S. moves too far in shrinking nuclear stockpiles, many circumstances will need to be carefully evaluated. The following developments would deserve particular attention: foreign force modernizations, especially those which might signify a waning of American technological superiority; the re-emergence of confrontational strategies by countries like China and Russia; nuclear proliferation activities not justified by credible civilian applications; and the strengthening of international terror networks directed against the U.S. and its allies.

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Still Thinking about the Unthinkable: Maintaining Nuclear Stability through Times of TransitionPatK2019-05-01T14:20:27-07:00

The Fallout from Libya: Al Qaeda in Africa

November 27, 2012

Vicki Huddleston, Ambassador, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Africa; US Ambassador to Madagascar and to Mali; Principal Officer of the US Interests Section in Havana and Chargé d’affairs ad interim in Ethiopia

The power vacuum created by Qadhafi’s fall goes beyond the tragic death of our Ambassador and his colleagues in Benghazi — the same city that the US led coalition saved from rape and pillage. Religious extremism, terror and crime now thrive within Libya and beyond. Having destroyed the country of Mali and established a homeland in West Africa from where, violent extremism will spread across the Sahara and North back into Algeria and Libya creating another Afghanistan if we fail to adopt a proactive counter terrorism strategy that will help Africa defeat Al Qaeda.

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The Fallout from Libya: Al Qaeda in AfricaPatK2019-05-01T14:20:27-07:00

Bureaucracy Does its Thing: US Performance in Afghanistan

June 15, 2012

Todd Greentree, former political/military advisor US forces in El Salvador, Nicaragua, Angola and Afghanistan

Most Americans are relieved that the international intervention in Afghanistan is winding down more than a decade after 9/11. Can the absence of clear cut victory despite a considerable investment of blood and treasure be attributed to Afghanistan’s reputation as the “graveyard of empires?” Meanwhile, Afghans have suffered 34 years of instability and war. How do they feel about the departure of foreign troops? Are they prepared to assume their own defense? Despite differences in scale, are there clear parallels with the experience of the US in Vietnam nearly 50 years ago? What lessons have we learned from the handling of these these conflicts? Finally, will historians judge the Afghan intervention to have been a success or failure? (more…)

Bureaucracy Does its Thing: US Performance in AfghanistanPatK2019-05-01T14:20:28-07:00

Rebuilding Iraq: What worked? What Didn’t? What Next?

November 17, 2011

Richard S.D. Hawkins, led an embedded Provincial Reconstruction Team of 40 subject matter experts in the rural and conflict laden eastern and southern zones of Baghdad Province from February 2008-April 2009

Central to the U.S. effort to help Iraq rebuild were the Provincial Reconstruction Teams, civilian-led groups of experts in governance, economic development, urban planning, basic services, agriculture, elections, women’s and family issues, and other specialties, some of which were embedded with US military units. With the U.S. Government scheduled to withdraw all troops from Iraq by December 2011, the Iraq reconstruction effort has come under intense scrutiny. What was it like to live in rural Iraq trying to create jobs, help widows, rebuild water and sewer systems, and foster reconciliation among tribal enemies? Do the results justify the many millions spent? Can or should the U.S. seek continuing benefit from its investment of money, time and talent? What have we learned about trying to provide development assistance in the midst of conflict? (more…)

Rebuilding Iraq: What worked? What Didn’t? What Next?PatK2019-05-01T14:20:28-07:00

India, Pakistan and Democracy: A Puzzle Solved?

November 1, 2010

Dr Phillip Oldenburg, currently adjunct Associate Professor of Political Science and Research Scholar, South Asian Institute, Columbia University, has also taught at Johns Hopkins University and the University of Texas, Austin

India and Pakistan emerged at independence in 1947 with similar political systems: a British colonial state apparatus and elected assemblies as precursors to parliaments. Since then, India has functioned democratically, while Pakistan has found itself under direct or indirect military rule for most of its existence. Why did they take such different paths? The factors are many, with religion not the most influential. What’s more, Americans may be surprised to learn that Pakistan’s oft-renewed alliance with the U.S. has actually enhanced the power of the military vis-à-vis elected representatives. In India, meanwhile, even under Indira Gandhi’s rather autocratic Emergency rule, politicians have always had the upper hand and democracy has progressively expanded its base. (more…)

India, Pakistan and Democracy: A Puzzle Solved?PatK2019-05-01T14:20:30-07:00