South Asia: The Next Nuclear Tinderbox?

November 7, 2019

Ankit Panda

India and Pakistan have fought four wars since their independence, including one after each broke out as a nuclear weapons power in 1998. A little more than 20 years ago, the two countries became the first nuclear-armed neighbors to fight a protracted conflict. In February 2019, after a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, India became the first nuclear-armed country to use conventional airpower against its nuclear-armed neighbor. In August, the Indian government, after winning a historic electoral mandate in May, moved to abrogate the autonomy of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. Kashmir remains at the center of broader disputes between India and Pakistan. Three of their four wars since 1947 were fought over that territory, which today remains highly militarized-a tinder box susceptible to be lit at any time.

In this context, what are the risks of a serious conflict in South Asia today between these two nuclear-armed neighbors? 21 years since their nuclear breakout, how have India and Pakistan operationalized their nuclear forces? Finally, amid Asia’s broader shifting geopolitics, how might the United States play a role in managing nuclear risks in the region?

Ankit-Pand

Ankit Panda is an award-winning American writer, analyst, and researcher specializing in international security, defense, geopolitics, and economics. His work has appeared in a range of publications, including the New York Times, Foreign Affairs, the Diplomat, the Atlantic, the Daily Beast, Politico Magazine, and War on the Rocks. He is currently a senior editor at the Diplomat, where he writes daily on security, geopolitics, and economics in the Asia-Pacific region and hosts a popular podcast. He is also an adjunct senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, where his work focuses on nuclear and conventional force developments in Asia, deterrence, and nuclear strategy.

Panda has additionally published scholarly research in journals including the Washington Quarterly, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and India Review. He is additionally a contributor to the International Institute on Strategic Studies’ Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment and Strategic Survey. Panda is also a consultant for a number of governments, international institutions, and corporations. He is a frequent participant in Track-2 and Track-1.5 dialogues in Asia, Europe, and North America. Panda is a graduate of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. He lives in New York City and tweets at @nktpnd.  His forthcoming book, Kim Jong Un and the Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea, published by Hurst Publisher will be available in 2020.

The SFWAF Program will be in the:  The SFCC Board Room (#223) which is in the West Wing (Administration building) of the Santa Fe Community College.
South Asia: The Next Nuclear Tinderbox?2019-10-04T19:51:33-07:00

Illicit Trade: A Complex Web Of Criminals, State Sponsors And Opportunists

October 8, 2019

Suzanne Hayden

lllegal trade (trafficking) taints every country. It weaves countries together unwitting alliances through the efforts of unscrupulous individuals, criminal groups and state sponsors: preying upon weaknesses of infrastructures and legislation, promoting greed and corruption and ultimately affecting financial systems, reputations and economic stability, it is difficult to adequately calculate its harm to the economy, global security, the environment and the human toll. A closer look at the world of human, wildlife, tobacco and weapons trafficking illustrates the changing nature of organized crime and the impact such trafficking has on our stability and security.

Suzanne Hayden

Suzanne Hayden spent over 30 years as a US and International prosecutor. She was a senior prosecutor for the Department of Justice and a trial attorney at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia where she started the first UN financial intelligence unit to follow the money of Slobodan Milosevic and supervised one of the earliest global stolen assets investigations against a sitting State’s leader. She was the DOJ legal advisor in Russia and Turkey and drafted anti-money laundering, terrorist finance and asset forfeiture legislation at the request of over 25 countries. Ms. Hayden served as the US Department of Justice’s (DOJ) first national security coordinator and represented the DOJ in the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the global standard setter for antimony laundering and terrorist financing and.

During her career, Ms. Hayden served as a senior advisor for the US Intelligence Community, the US Department of Justice, the US Department of the Treasury Office of Technical Assistance, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and the International Anti-Corruption Academy in Austria. She is on the Board of Trustees of the UN Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute and sits on two advisory boards for illicit trade and anti-corruption. Ms. Hayden is currently the legal strategist for International Wildlife Trust, an NGO formed to build prosecutable cases against organized crime groups whose wild life criminal activities have thus far remained insulated and untouchable. Ms. Hayden continues to follow her passion for Native American issues and is working on a strategy to address the US tragedy of murdered and missing Native American women and girls through investigation, advocacy and legislation.

The SFWAF Program will be in the:  The SFCC Board Room (#223) which is in the West Wing (Administration building) of the Santa Fe Community College.
Illicit Trade: A Complex Web Of Criminals, State Sponsors And Opportunists2019-09-18T22:29:37-07:00

Understanding Orban’s Hungary

SOLD OUT!!!

  September 24, 2019

 Dr. Deborah Cornelius

Hungary and the Fidesz regime of Viktor Orban have been much in the news in recent months, with criticism of the increasing centralization of power, control of the free press, and blows to academic freedom. Despite protests against widespread propaganda, increasing government control, limitations on freedom of academic research, during her most recent visit Dr. Cornelius found that much of the population still appear satisfied with the Fidesz government. They often praised the Orban regime and its accomplishments, although with a nonchalant acknowledgement of widespread corruption.

The fall of communism led to wild hopes in Central and Eastern Europe that the inhabitants would be able to join capitalist Western Europe and garner the benefits and standard of living associated with the West. Why has the early wild enthusiasm of 1990 disintegrated into disappointment and resentment? What accounts for the popularity of the Orban regime? Why is the opposition is so weak and fragmented? How have past governments failed the population, beginning with the rapid privatization after 1990? How has the refugee crisis of 2015 raised Orban’s popularity and increased criticism of the European Union? Does Orban represent the forefront of a rising tide of populist leaders in Eastern Europe, or his regime specific to the Hungarian situation?

Deborah S. Cornelius

Deborah S Cornelius is a historian and former professor at Rutgers, the State University. Her field of study is Central and Eastern Europe with a focus on Hungary and the lands of the former Hungarian Kingdom. She received her doctorate from Rutgers University, 1994, after a year of research in Hungary on a Fulbright Research Fellowship. Her MA is from Yale University, 1958 and BA from Connecticut College, 1956. She has taught at Franklin and Marshall College, the International School of Vienna, Austria, the American School,Tangier, Morocco, and Santa Fe Prep School. A leading US authority on Hungary, Cornelius most recently spent five weeks in Budapest studying the present state of the Hungarian regime.

Her publications concerning Hungary and the former kingdom include:  Hungary in World War II: Caught in the Cauldron. Fordham University Press, 2011. Kutyaszorítóban: Magyarország és a II.világ háború. Rubicon-kőnvek. 2015. In Search of the Nation: the New Generation of Hungarian Youth in Czechoslovakia 1925-1934. 1925-1934. Columbia U. Press.1999.

The SFWAF Program will be in the:  The SFCC Board Room (#223) which is in the West Wing (Administration building) of the Santa Fe Community College.
Understanding Orban’s Hungary2019-09-18T22:40:18-07:00

Lecture and Screening of “TRANSIT”

  March 12, 2019

 Dr. Randall Halle

This program is presented through a joint partnership of the Colorado European Union Center of Excellence, the Center for Contemporary Art and the Santa Fe World Affairs Forum

Dr. Randall Halle
Tuesday, March 12, 2019 @ 6 pm 

The Screen
1600 Saint Michaels Drive Santa Fe, NM 87505

Randal HalleDr. Randall Halle, The Klaus W. Jonas Professor of German Film and Cultural Studies and the Director of the Film and Media Studies Program at University of Pittsburgh, presents a lecture and screening of a film that addresses many of the urgent challenges facing societies across the globe.
His books include: The Europeanization of Cinema, German Film after Germany, Queer Readings in Social Philosophy and the co-edited volumes After the Avant-Garde and Light Motives.

The screening is Christian Petzold’s “TRANSIT”, an engaging and challenging drama with refugees, fascism, desperation, betrayal, mystery and love. The film adapts Anna Segher’s 1944 novel about German refugee who fled to Marseille at the outbreak of WWII, the invading Nazi forces on their heels. But it moves between the plight of the displaced then and now. Living among refugees from around the world huddled in Marseille, our main character assumes the identity of the dead writer whose transit papers he is carrying. And he falls for, a mysterious woman searching for her husband—the man whose identity he has stolen. (Germany/France, 2018, 101m)

“Extraordinary! Conceptually daring.”
–Variety

“Moody, beguiling, formally bold. Turns history
into an existential maze from

which few seem destined to escape” –The New
York Times

“Urgent and slyly brilliant. Like
a remake of Casablanca as written by Franz Kafka.” –IndieWire

Tuesday, March 12, 2019 @ 6 pm 

The Screen
1600 Saint Michaels Drive Santa Fe, NM 87505

Lecture and Screening of “TRANSIT”2019-05-01T14:20:25-07:00

The intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Next Arms Race

The Trump administration has been threatening to withdraw the United States from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Agreement by February 2, 2019. Its stated reason is that Russia has developed a missile that violates the treaty. US withdrawal, however, is likely to lead to a new nuclear arms race.

The INF Treaty was signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987 to end a dangerous arms race that threatened the European continent. The treaty outlawed an entire class of weapon and formed a basis for later arms control agreements.

We do not know what President Donald Trump will actually do with respect to the treaty. This talk will be up to the minute. It will include the historical background of the INF Treaty, its place in the framework of arms control treaties, and how the US’s withdrawal from it can provoke a new arms race, along with the implications of actions taken by the administration during February.

Cheryl Rofer was a chemist at the Los Alamos National Laboratory for 35 years. She now writes scientific and political commentary for the web publications Nuclear Diner and Balloon Juice. She regularly provides background information on nuclear topics to reporters and has been quoted in the New York Times, Washington Post, and Vox. Her work at Los Alamos included projects in fossil fuels, laser development, and the nuclear fuel cycle and has worked on environmental remediation at Los Alamos and in Estonia and Kazakhstan. She is past president of the Los Alamos Committee on Arms Control and International Security and a founding member of SFWAF. She has published in scientific and political science journals and edited a book. She holds an A.B. from Ripon College and an M.S. from the University of California at Berkeley. She has spoken to SFWAF on several previous occasions, most recently on the Iran Nuclear Agreement.

The SFWAF Program will be in the:  The SFCC Board Room (#223) which is in the West Wing (Administration building) of the Santa Fe Community College.
The intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Next Arms Race2019-05-01T14:20:25-07:00

Water as the Common Denominator for Health and Peace

 January 22, 2019

 David Douglas

SOLD OUT!

There is no more serious and solvable global health problem in developing countries than the lack of safe water in hospitals and clinics. The need for safe water in Gaza and the West Bank represents a common goal for Palestinians and Israelis at a time when few other issues bring the sides together.

The Washington D.C.-based advocacy organization, Global Water 2020, where David Douglas is a principal, has become one of the key entities working behind the scenes on these two issues to expand safe water access.

Douglas, a Santa Fe resident, will focus on current steps being taken by governments, UN agencies, NGOs, and donors to extend safe water to tens of thousands of health-care facilities in Africa, Asia and Latin America. He’ll also describe several quiet efforts now underway by Palestinians, Israelis and international donors to improve drinking water and wastewater conditions in Gaza and the West Bank.

David Douglas leads non-profit organizations devoted to global clean drinking water, including the DC-based Global Water 2020 (www.globalwater2020.org) and the Santa-Fe based non-profit organization Waterlines (www.waterlines.org) which has provided funding and technical aid for over 1,000 small-scale drinking water projects in rural villages, schools, churches and clinics in developing countries. From 2005-2010 he headed the time-limited initiative Water Advocates, the US’s first advocacy organization devoted to increasing public and private support for safe drinking water and adequate sanitation worldwide. This past November, at the invitation of the US State Department and the Vatican’s Dicastery for Integral Human Development, Douglas spoke in Rome on the appalling lack of safe water and sanitation in government and faith-based health-care facilities in developing countries.

Douglas practiced environmental law and wrote extensively in the 1980’s and 1990’s on global drinking water issues. He is the author of “Wilderness Sojourn: Notes in the Desert Silence,”Letters of Faith: Memoirs of an Appalachian Conversion,” and co-author with his wife, Deborah, of “Pilgrims in the Kingdom: Travels in Christian Britain.”  He and Deborah live in Santa Fe and have two grown daughters and five grandchildren.

The SFWAF Program will be in the:  The SFCC Board Room (#223) which is in the West Wing (Administration building) of the Santa Fe Community College.
Water as the Common Denominator for Health and Peace2019-05-01T14:20:25-07:00
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