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The Intent and Reality of Foreign Assistance to Afghanistan: Experience from Obama’s Surge

March 09, 2022

Rebecca Black

The U.S. government spent $145 billion to rebuild and develop Afghanistan over the past 20 years. Funds were implemented by a dozen USG agencies including USAID, a major player in supporting a range of activities, from building roads and power plants to improving education and health, governance, and income generation. Themes of democracy and women’s empowerment played alongside counterinsurgency and stability. Funding was big and pressure strong to deliver results in a country with diverse cultures and geography, and limited access due to the nature of war.

Rebecca Black served 25 years as a Foreign Service Officer with USAID, achieving the rank of Minister Counselor in the Senior Foreign Service. She most recently served as USAID Mission Director for Cambodia and for Mali, managing a diverse portfolio including health, education, agriculture, and governance.

Ms. Black served as the Deputy Mission Director for USAID Afghanistan and as economic and urban environment program director in India, South Africa, and Poland. Ms. Black began her professional career in community economic development in Boston, Massachusetts, following completion of a master degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Ms. Black now lives in New Mexico, working occasionally on international development assignments, and volunteer engagements.

The Speaker

US Senior Foreign Service Officer, USAID (rtd)
Rebecca Black served 25 years as a Foreign Service Officer with USAID, achieving the rank of Minister Counselor in the Senior Foreign Service. She most recently served as USAID Mission Director for Cambodia and for Mali, managing a diverse portfolio including health, education, agriculture, and governance.

Ms. Black served as the Deputy Mission Director for USAID Afghanistan and as economic and urban environment program director in India, South Africa, and Poland. Ms. Black began her professional career in community economic development in Boston, Massachusetts, following completion of a master degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Ms. Black now lives in New Mexico, working occasionally on international development assignments, and volunteer engagements.

The Intent and Reality of Foreign Assistance to Afghanistan: Experience from Obama’s Surge2022-03-05T00:13:21-07:00

Afghanistan’s Cycle of Historical Repetition

March 02, 2022

Paul Cruickshank

A personal reflection based on nearly 15 years’ experience in Afghanistan; a review of Afghan history, especially regarding the 21st Century, and its ethnic and political challenges; how such challenges led to the need for humanitarian and development assistance over the last 20 years, and in particular the need for urgent assistance to address the ongoing humanitarian crisis; and an overview of how the international community, including the United Nations, has been operating, and continues to operate, across the country in support of the Afghan people.

Paul-CruickshankPaul Cruickshank comes from a military background, having served with the British Army for 20 years. He is a graduate of the British Army Command and Staff College (1994-1995), and was later appointed Member of the British Empire (MBE) by Queen Elizabeth II in 1999, for his contribution to strategic military planning for peace support operations in the Balkans. His last deployment in the army was to Afghanistan at the end of 2001 as part of the international effort to remove the Taliban regime and commence reconstruction across the country.

Paul joined the UN in Afghanistan in 2002 and helped set up, plan and implement the Afghan Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) programme. At the end of disarmament and demobilization, he moved to Indonesia (Banda Aceh) to set up and manage support to the Indonesian Government’s response to the 2004 tsunami. In 2006, Paul was posted to Iraq as Senior Advisor on Security Sector Reform. In 2009, he moved to Kosovo to manage the Support to Security Sector Reform programme, before returning to Afghanistan in 2010 to set up and run UK DFID’s M&E programme in Helmand province. He re-joined the UN in early 2011, before being posted to South Sudan as Director and Representative in early 2015. Paul returned to Afghanistan in May 2017 as UNOPS’ Director & Representative, a position he held until retiring from the UN at the end of 2021.

Paul is now the founder and CEO of Fillan Rose Ltd, a discreet management consultancy seeking, in both the public and private sectors, to apply lessons learnt over the last 20 years so that more can be done with less, and all can be done better.

The Speaker

Paul Cruickshank
Paul CruickshankFounder and CEO of Fillan Rose Ltd
Paul Cruickshank comes from a military background, having served with the British Army for 20 years. He is a graduate of the British Army Command and Staff College (1994-1995), and was later appointed Member of the British Empire (MBE) by Queen Elizabeth II in 1999, for his contribution to strategic military planning for peace support operations in the Balkans. His last deployment in the army was to Afghanistan at the end of 2001 as part of the international effort to remove the Taliban regime and commence reconstruction across the country.

Paul joined the UN in Afghanistan in 2002 and helped set up, plan and implement the Afghan Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) programme. At the end of disarmament and demobilization, he moved to Indonesia (Banda Aceh) to set up and manage support to the Indonesian Government’s response to the 2004 tsunami. In 2006, Paul was posted to Iraq as Senior Advisor on Security Sector Reform. In 2009, he moved to Kosovo to manage the Support to Security Sector Reform programme, before returning to Afghanistan in 2010 to set up and run UK DFID’s M&E programme in Helmand province. He re-joined the UN in early 2011, before being posted to South Sudan as Director and Representative in early 2015. Paul returned to Afghanistan in May 2017 as UNOPS’ Director & Representative, a position he held until retiring from the UN at the end of 2021.

Paul is now the founder and CEO of Fillan Rose Ltd, a discreet management consultancy seeking, in both the public and private sectors, to apply lessons learnt over the last 20 years so that more can be done with less, and all can be done better.

Afghanistan’s Cycle of Historical Repetition2022-03-04T22:13:04-07:00

Taliban In Afghanistan: ​A Review Six Months Since Take-Over

February 16, 2022

Dr. Emile Nakhleh

Once the US completed the withdrawal of all American military forces and civilian personnel from Afghanistan on August 30,2022, the Taliban not only managed to forge a strategic partnership with the large and influential Haqqani network but was confronted by other challengers in this complex Afghan mosaic. All are Islamic terrorist groups operating within the “new” Afghanistan.

Who are these groups? Where are they based? Which are the most important? Do they have ties to the global Al’Qaida and ISIS Central organizations – and if so which ones do? How do they interact with the Taliban and each other? What are the differences, similarities and the alliances forged between them now that the US is gone? How do operate? What are their short and long term goals and their operational capabilities and, as a consequence, what kind of threats do they and will they likely present to the US? Will the US be able to track their activities without having “boots on the ground?”

This is the second webinar in our Afghanistan in the Aftermath series which we will be holding throughout February and part of March 2022 on Wednesdays from 12:30-1:45.

Dr. Nakhleh spoke most recently to the Santa Fe World Affairs Forum on Terrorism and the Middle East September 2016. It is a pleasure to welcome him back.

Dr. Emile Nakhleh, is a retired CIA Senior Intelligence Service Officer and founding director of CIA’s Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program Office. He currently serves as Research Professor and Director of the Global and National Security Policy Institute (GNSPI) at the University of New Mexico. He is a National Intelligence Council/IC Associate and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Since retiring from the US Government in 2006, he has consulted on national security issues, particularly Islamic radicalization, terrorism, and the Arab states of the Middle East. He has published frequently on the “Arab Spring” in the Financial Times and Cipher Brief.

He holds a Ph.D. from the American University, Washington, D.C., in International Relations, an M.A. from Georgetown University in Political Science, and a B.A. from Saint John’s University, Minnesota, in Political Science. He is the author of numerous academic books and scholarly articles. He is currently President of the World Affairs Council – Albuquerque. He and his wife, Ilonka Lessnau Nakhleh, live in Albuquerque, NM.

The Speaker

Dr. Emile Nakhleh
Dr. Emile NakhlehCIA Senior Intelligence Service Officer and founding director of CIA’s Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program Office, Research Professor and Director of the Global and National Security Policy Institute (GNSPI) at the University of New Mexico
Dr. Emile Nakhleh is a retired CIA Senior Intelligence Service Officer and founding director of CIA’s Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program Office. He currently serves as Research Professor and Director of the Global and National Security Policy Institute (GNSPI) at the University of New Mexico. He is a National Intelligence Council/IC Associate and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Since retiring from the US Government in 2006, he has consulted on national security issues, particularly Islamic radicalization, terrorism, and the Arab states of the Middle East. He has published frequently on the “Arab Spring” in the Financial Times and Cipher Brief.

He holds a Ph.D. from the American University, Washington, D.C., in International Relations, an M.A. from Georgetown University in Political Science, and a B.A. from Saint John’s University, Minnesota, in Political Science. He is the author of numerous academic books and scholarly articles. He is currently President of the World Affairs Council – Albuquerque. He and his wife, Ilonka Lessnau Nakhleh, live in Albuquerque, NM.

Taliban In Afghanistan: ​A Review Six Months Since Take-Over2022-02-19T09:51:00-07:00

Union Humanitarian Aid in Afghanistan: before and after the US withdrawal

February 09, 2022

Raffaella Iodice

Although the US completed withdrawal of all its military forces and civilian personnel from Afghanistan on August 30,2022, the European Union was also involved in the larger evacuation multinational operation that took place at the Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul in August. Since then, the EU has continued to contribute humanitarian aid to Afghanis still living in the country. Raffaella Iodice not only was part of the EU evacuation endeavours in August, but subsequently participated in Doha-EU negotiations as well as in talks with partners and the Talib in Kabul in December to help facilitate European humanitarian aid reach the Afghanis who need it most. Ms Iodice, an internationally respected specialist of development in war-torn countries, is currently based at the European Commission in Brussels from where she will be conducting this webinar. In it, she will share some of the EU experience gained and lessons learned as a part of her work in and on Afghanistan.

This is the first webinar in our Afghanistan in the Aftermath series which we will be holding throughout February and part of March 2022 on Wednesdays from 12:30-1:45

We appreciate the European Commission’s facilitation in making this first webinar in the series possible.

Raffaella Iodice presently serves as Head of Unit for “Asia, Latin America, Caribbean and Pacific” and Deputy Director at the Directorate General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) after serving as Head of the “Middle East/Gulf, South Asia and Central Asia” at the European Commission “Development and International Cooperation” department (IN TPA).

Born in Italy, she left her home just after graduating from high school, to attend the university in Brussels (ULB). Just after her final University degree, in 1991, she joined the European Commission. Over the years, Raffaella has become an internationally respected specialist of development, particularly in the areas of war-torn countries and the Middle East. She has held posts in Palestine during the second Intifada (from 2002 to 2007), where she was in charge of development cooperation activities and relations with the Palestinian Authority, and in Egypt (from end of 2007 to end 2011), where she managed political and development relationships with the government. She lived in Cairo during the Tahir revolution and once back to Brussels at the end of 2011, she has been actively involved in all EU activities in the region during the so-called Arab Spring. She has also served as Head of Unit for the Mediterranean countries with frequent travels to Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestine…

In her capacity, she is now actively involved also in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Iraq, countries she regularly visits.
She commands several languages. Among them: French, English, Spanish, German, Hebrew and some Arabic.

The Speaker

Raffaella Iodice
Raffaella Iodice
Raffaella Iodice presently serves as Head of Unit for “Asia, Latin America, Caribbean and Pacific” and Deputy Director at the Directorate General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) after serving as Head of the “Middle East/Gulf, South Asia and Central Asia” at the European Commission “Development and International Cooperation” department (IN TPA).

Born in Italy, she left her home just after graduating from high school, to attend the university in Brussels (ULB). Just after her final University degree, in 1991, she joined the European Commission. Over the years, Raffaella has become an internationally respected specialist of development, particularly in the areas of war-torn countries and the Middle East. She has held posts in Palestine during the second Intifada (from 2002 to 2007), where she was in charge of development cooperation activities and relations with the Palestinian Authority, and in Egypt (from end of 2007 to end 2011), where she managed political and development relationships with the government. She lived in Cairo during the Tahir revolution and once back to Brussels at the end of 2011, she has been actively involved in all EU activities in the region during the so-called Arab Spring. She has also served as Head of Unit for the Mediterranean countries with frequent travels to Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestine…

In her capacity, she is now actively involved also in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Iraq, countries she regularly visits.

She commands several languages. Among them: French, English, Spanish, German, Hebrew and some Arabic.

Union Humanitarian Aid in Afghanistan: before and after the US withdrawal2022-02-19T08:48:27-07:00

Dealing with the Dragon: A Great Wall on Common Ground

December 01, 2021

Philip A Shull

China’s searing experience with famine and food scarcity across the millennia has shaped fundamental aspects of Chinese culture. Indeed, the written word for “population” is composed of the characters of “person” and “mouth” – very different from the Western “per capita”, i.e. “per head.” With four times the population and one-fifth the arable land of the United States, feeding the people has been THE top priority of Chinese leaders since 1949. Despite some horrific failures in the 1950’s and 60’s, achieving food security for nearly every mouth is one of the PRC’s most shining accomplishments.

As China’s wealth and appetite has grown, it has become a tantalizing market for the U.S. and other food and agricultural exporters. But while China buys over one-third of all soybeans grown in the United States and over 60% of the global soybean market, China’s obsession with food self-sufficiency, disregard of international trade standards, and use of agricultural imports as a political tool has exasperated negotiators and constrained billions in trade with the U.S. and others. China’s past has made it suspicious and even dismissive of international institutions such as the WTO. Working in concert with other countries to bring China’s agricultural trade policies into line with its international commitments is one way to help make this critically important nation a responsible and predictable global partner.

Philip Shull

Mr. Philip A. Shull is a consultant, expert witness, author, and speaker on China, international trade, food security, and economic/market development. He retired as a senior U.S. diplomat in 2016 after serving for over 30 years with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, directing offices in China (including Mongolia), Korea, Argentina (including Uruguay and Paraguay), the Philippines, and Hong Kong/Macao, as well as Washington. His final diplomatic position was Minister Counselor for Agriculture at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, USDA’s largest and most important post.

As Minister Counselor, Mr. Shull oversaw the commodity analysis, capacity building, trade policy, and marketing and promotion work of all five USDA offices across China. In all of his overseas postings he worked with his counterparts in other embassies to advance common food safety, market access, and agricultural sustainability issues. In his Washington postings, Mr. Shull served in various capacities involving economic analysis, trade policy, and export expansion, including as director of international marketing. Mr. Shull is an experienced trade negotiator on bilateral and multilateral agricultural and food safety issues, and served as U.S. delegation leader and spokesmen in meetings and conferences on various agricultural issues. He has advised hundreds of companies and trade associations across the value chain. All of Mr. Shull’s work has worked toward advancing the global food security and agricultural sustainability.

The Speaker

Philip A. Shull
Philip A. ShullSenior Diplomat (rtd), President and Founder, The Philip Shull Group LLC
Philip A. Shull is a consultant, expert witness, author, and speaker on China, international trade, food security, and economic/market development. He retired as a senior U.S. diplomat in 2016 after serving for over 30 years with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, directing offices in China (including Mongolia), Korea, Argentina (including Uruguay and Paraguay), the Philippines, and Hong Kong/Macao, as well as Washington. His final diplomatic position was Minister Counselor for Agriculture at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, USDA’s largest and most important post.

As Minister Counselor, Mr. Shull oversaw the commodity analysis, capacity building, trade policy, and marketing and promotion work of all five USDA offices across China. In all of his overseas postings he worked with his counterparts in other embassies to advance common food safety, market access, and agricultural sustainability issues. In his Washington postings, Mr. Shull served in various capacities involving economic analysis, trade policy, and export expansion, including as director of international marketing. Mr. Shull is an experienced trade negotiator on bilateral and multilateral agricultural and food safety issues, and served as U.S. delegation leader and spokesmen in meetings and conferences on various agricultural issues. He has advised hundreds of companies and trade associations across the value chain. All of Mr. Shull’s work has worked toward advancing the global food security and agricultural sustainability.

Dealing with the Dragon: A Great Wall on Common Ground2021-11-22T08:45:13-07:00

China’s Changing Nuclear Posture

November 10, 2021

Matt Korda

US defense officials have claimed for several years that China is planning to at least double its nuclear warhead stockpile over the next decade, but without providing the public any details to back up their claim. That changed this summer, when nongovernmental organizations—including the Federation of American Scientists—disclosed construction of what appears to be hundreds of new missile silos in central China. The scale of China’s missile silo construction, combined with the other elements of its nuclear build-up, are unprecedented in Chinese nuclear history. It underscores that China’s nuclear posture has entered a new dynamic phase that requires new attention from the international community. To that end, Matt Korda, Senior Research Associate and Project Manager for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, will discuss China’s changing nuclear posture and its potential implications for the global nuclear order.

Matt Korda

Matt Korda is a Senior Research Associate and Project Manager for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, where he co-authors the Nuclear Notebook––an authoritative open-source estimate of global nuclear forces and trends. Matt is also an Associate Researcher with the Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-proliferation Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Previously, he worked for the Arms Control, Disarmament, and WMD Non-Proliferation Centre at NATO HQ in Brussels. Matt received his MA in International Peace and Security from the Department of War Studies at King’s College London.

The Speaker

Matt Korda
Matt KordaSenior Research Associate and Project Manager for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists
Matt Korda is a Senior Research Associate and Project Manager for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, where he co-authors the Nuclear Notebook––an authoritative open-source estimate of global nuclear forces and trends. Matt is also an Associate Researcher with the Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-proliferation Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Previously, he worked for the Arms Control, Disarmament, and WMD Non-Proliferation Centre at NATO HQ in Brussels. Matt received his MA in International Peace and Security from the Department of War Studies at King’s College London

China’s Changing Nuclear Posture2021-11-13T21:15:24-07:00
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