The Iran Nuclear Deal: What It Is, What It Isn’t, and Its Potential Ramifications
November 20, 2015
Cheryl Rofer, Former President of the Los Alamos Committee on Arms Control and International Security
On July 14, Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with the P5+1 (or E3+3) – the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany. The agreement imposes strict controls on Iran’s nuclear program in return for relief from sanctions imposed on Iran.
Implementation of the agreement is proceeding; Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency are working through the question of what work related to nuclear weapon development Iran may have done, to be capped by a United Nations Security Council resolution on December 15. Both Iran and the United States have completed their internal legislative processes related to the agreement, and October 18 was Adoption Day, when the agreement goes into effect. The next steps are for the P5+1 to develop conditional waivers to the sanctions and for Iran to meet a list of requirements for those waivers to go into effect. This is likely to be completed by spring or summer 2016.
The talk will cover the basics of the agreement and major objections to it.
Still Thinking about the Unthinkable: Maintaining Nuclear Stability through Times of Transition
Any reduction of the nation’s nuclear arsenal will have consequences, both direct and ancillary. Before the U.S. moves too far in shrinking nuclear stockpiles, many circumstances will need to be carefully evaluated. The following developments would deserve particular attention: foreign force modernizations, especially those which might signify a waning of American technological superiority; the re-emergence of confrontational strategies by countries like China and Russia; nuclear proliferation activities not justified by credible civilian applications; and the strengthening of international terror networks directed against the U.S. and its allies.